Publications

Since 2015 GDP growth has slowed due to decreased commodity prices, but the external economic position remains solid and the liquidity position sound.

Against a backdrop of heightened political uncertainty, the Dutch economy is holding firm. A centre-right coalition is the most likely outcome of the elections.

Atradius forecasts insolvencies across advanced markets to fall only 2% in 2017, the weakest performance since 2009.

Despite decreases the level of payment delays and insolvencies will remain high in 2017 as a full-scale rebound is not expected for the time being.

The recovery of the construction sector has finally gained some momentum, but competition remains fierce, and prices and profitability are still low.

Despite continued growth during the last ten years and a benign outlook the level of building activity seen in the 1990s has not been reached again.

The recovery of the Dutch construction sector continued in 2016, but there is still overcapacity in the market, and a consolidation has yet to take place.

Uncertainty in the British construction market is expected to increase in the coming years, especially as a ‘hard Brexit’ seems to be most probable.

Italian building cooperatives and smaller companies focused on domestic residential construction remain highly exposed to the risk of business failure.

Future US construction growth could get an additional boost if, as announced, the new US administration invests heavily in infrastructure improvements.

A modest recovery is forecast in the non-residential segment due to stronger private demand and activity picking up in the infrastructure building sector.

Due to the deterioration in demand competition has increased, as builders operate on lower margins in order to obtain the remaining available business.

Private building projects are expected to decrease due to less benign economic conditions and an increased supply completed housing projects and offices.

Construction payment delays and insolvencies have decreased, mainly because financially weak players already left the market during the past downturn.

Value added construction growth is expected to grow by more than 2.5% in 2017, but due to fierce competition many smaller players have low margins.

After rising in 2016, non-payments are expected to increase further in the coming six months, while business closures are also increasing further.

The US decision to leave the TPP agreement could foretell profound economic and strategic implications for certain Asia Pacific economies and industries.

The price of oil has stabilised, largely thanks to OPEC’s shift in policy. The market is expected to rebalance in 2018 driving up prices in the medium term.

The on-going economic slowdown, overcapacities and high indebtedness of many businesses will lead to further increasing business insolvencies in 2017.

India’s economic growth outlook for 2017 remains robust, but a rather weak banking sector and high foreign indebtedness of domestic firms remain concerns.