Publications

Atradius identifies the most likely outcome of the UK’s in-out referendum set for 2017 and the sectors and countries most vulnerable to Brexit.

In 2015, Australian business insolvencies are expected to increase slightly by 2% as economic growth slows down and the mining industry faces mounting troubles.

The insolvency outlook for 2015 has weakened and difficulties are expected to continue into 2016.

The sector benefits from higher machinery investments as the Japanese economic recovery is on track (GDP is expected to grow 1.0% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016 after a modest contraction in 2014).

In 2015 production is expected to increase at around 2%, the same level as in 2014.

The machinery sector in Brazil is being severely impacted by an economic downturn (Brazilian GDP is expected to contract 1.5% in 2015).

Payments in the Czech machinery sector take around 40 days, with ‘days sales outstanding’ (DSO) for smaller businesses of about 50 days.

Compared to other US industries the rate of insolvencies is low in the machinery sector, and it is expected that business failures will level off or even decrease slightly (by about 1%) in H2 of 2015.

The outlook for the machinery industry is promising, as the Italian economy is expected to grow 0.6% in 2015 and 0.9% in 2016 after two years of contraction.

The machinery sector should benefit from the economic rebound in France, with GDP forecast to grow 1.1% in 2015 (after 0.2% in 2014) and stronger growth in industrial production and exports.

China’s machinery sector has seen high overcapacity: profits of machinery businesses will be squeezed further by fierce competition, as companies have to offer lower prices to keep market shares.

The Swedish machinery sector has seen many positive developments over the past few years and currently benefits from higher global demand.

Hungary has become a key production base for automotive majors such as Audi, Daimler (Mercedes-Benz), Suzuki and General Motors.

Jordan’s economic growth is expected to accelerate from 3.1% in 2014 to 4.3% in 2015.

In 2015 and 2016 Egypt’s economy is expected to grow by more than 4%, as improved stability in the country will boost domestic demand.

Despite the UAE’s overall diversification, the lower oil price is expected to take its toll on economic growth.

Tunisia’s economy is expected to grow moderately in 2015 and 2016, supported by increased demand from the eurozone.

Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth is expected to slow down to 3.0% in 2015 following a growth of 3.6% in 2014.

An expected rebound in agriculture will lead to higher GDP growth in 2015, forecast to increase 4.6%. Growth is also sustained by increasing exports, mainly to the eurozone.

In 2015, Kuwait's economic growth is expected to decrease to 1.7% due to the lower oil price and decreased oil production.

Concerns in 2014 over an impending crisis in Russia were overblown. But insolvencies have increased and specific industries are affected badly by the ongoing recession.

Despite its growing economy, Japan faces major demographic challenges. There is an urgent need to make the labour market more flexible to achieve a sustainable rebound and boost economic performance.

After three years of contraction, Italy’s economy is expected to grow by 0.6% in 2015.

The UK economy expanded by 2.6% in 2014, the fastest pace of growth since 2007. While consumer spending was the main driver, real fixed investments also increased.

While exports, industrial production and investments are expected to decrease year-on-year in 2015, private consumption is expected to rise 1.1% in 2015.

The Swedish economy is set to grow by 2.4 % in 2015, with industrial production rebounding after three years of decline. Household consumption and investment growth are expected to continue.

Spain’s real fixed investment and industrial production are expected to continue to grow and exports are also expected to accelerate in 2015.

The rebound of the Dutch economy is expected to accelerate in 2015, with export growth accompanied by a recovery in private consumption, industrial production and investment.

In 2015, Ireland’s economy is forecast to grow by 3.6%, backed by exports to the US and UK where demand is picking up. Private consumption is expected to increase further.

In contrast to previous years when exports provided the main contribution to German economic growth, household consumption is expected to become the key driver in 2015.

In 2015 the French economy is expected to grow 1.1% as private consumption, manufacturing and exports improve. However, this projected growth rate remains below the forecast eurozone average of 1.4%.

The Danish economy is expected to rebound further, with a 1.8% expansion forecast for 2015 as private consumption and investment growth accelerate and export growth continues.

Belgian economic growth accelerated to 1.0% in 2014 after two years of weak performance. This improvement is expected to continue in 2015, with 1.2% growth in GDP forecast.

After modest growth in 2013 (up 0.3%) and 2014 (up 0.4%) the Austrian economy is expected to see a modest 0.8% surge in 2015.

There are positive signs for the Turkish chemicals industry. In 2015, the chemicals sector is expected to grow driven by increasing demand and the positive effects of the lower oil prices.

Growth in the chemicals sector is forecast to continue in 2015, on the back of UK’s robust economic performance.

Chemicals/pharmaceuticals has been a well performing sector in Switzerland; demand and profit margins are expected to remain stable in 2015.

In 2015, Singapore’s GDP is forecast to grow a modest 3 %, and the production of chemicals is expected to grow at the same rate.

The chemicals sector in Mexico is expected to grow modestly in 2015 due to the country’s lower economic growth (forecast 2.6 % in 2015).

In Q1 2015, the Dutch chemicals sector saw an increase in production and exports. Additionally, it is expected that Dutch chemicals businesses ́ investments will increase in 2015.

In 2015 Italian chemicals production is forecast to grow 1.4 %, due to increasing exports (up 3.2 %) and the first signs of improving domestic demand (up 1.3 %) after four years of contraction.

The Belgian chemicals sector is expected to grow in 2015, helped by a weaker euro, lower oil prices and a eurozone rebound.

The chemicals sector is benefiting from the on-going US economic growth. US chemicals production growth is expected to increase 3.7 % in 2015 and 3.9 % in 2016 (after growing 2 % in 2014).

Since 2000, the Spanish chemicals sector has increased its exports by more than 170 %, demonstrating its competitive edge in the global market.

German chemicals/pharmaceuticals businesses have a strong market position, and many are highly specialised. The industry has a well-deserved reputation for innovation and a competitive edge.

The chemicals sector ́s export share (mainly in Europe) amounts to more than two thirds of overall sales. French businesses are in strong competition with international players, especially the US.

Chemicals production in China is expected to increase 8.5 % in 2015 following the 8.8 % growth rate registered in 2014.

The UAE’s ICT market is currently characterised by high competition, single-digit margins, low entry barriers and stagnating growth in sub-segments like PCs and desktops.

In 2015, the Dutch ICT sector is expected to grow 3 % in volume, on the back of the country’s economic rebound (GDP is forecast to grow 1.7 %).

The ICT sector has seen a decline due to the economic downturn in Brazil, with decreasing demand, exchange rate volatility and high interest rates.